Bayesian group testing with dilution effects.

A Bayesian framework for group testing under dilution effects has been developed, using lattice-based models. This work has particular relevance given the pressing public health need to enhance testing capacity for coronavirus disease 2019 and future pandemics, and the need for wide-scale and repeated testing for surveillance under constantly varying conditions. The proposed Bayesian approach allows for dilution effects in group testing and for general test response distributions beyond just binary outcomes. It is shown that even under strong dilution effects, an intuitive group testing selection rule that relies on the model order structure, referred to as the Bayesian halving algorithm, has attractive optimal convergence properties. Analogous look-ahead rules that can reduce the number of stages in classification by selecting several pooled tests at a time are proposed and evaluated as well. Group testing is demonstrated to provide great savings over individual testing in the number of tests needed, even for moderately high prevalence levels. However, there is a trade-off with higher number of testing stages, and increased variability. A web-based calculator is introduced to assist in weighing these factors and to guide decisions on when and how to pool under various conditions. High-performance distributed computing methods have also been implemented for considering larger pool sizes, when savings from group testing can be even more dramatic.

Biodiversity loss and COVID-19 pandemic: The role of bats in the origin and the spreading of the disease.

The loss of biodiversity in the ecosystems has created the general conditions that have favored and, in fact, made possible, the insurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic. A lot of factors have contributed to it: deforestation, changes in forest habitats, poorly regulated agricultural surfaces, mismanaged urban growth. They have altered the composition of wildlife communities, greatly increased the contacts of humans with wildlife, and altered niches that harbor pathogens, increasing their chances to come in contact with humans. Among the wildlife, bats have adapted easily to anthropized environments such as houses, barns, cultivated fields, orchards, where they found the suitable ecosystem to prosper. Bats are major hosts for αCoV and ßCoV: evolution has shaped their peculiar physiology and their immune system in a way that makes them resistant to viral pathogens that would instead successfully attack other species, including humans. In time, the coronaviruses that bats host as reservoirs have undergone recombination and other modifications that have increased their ability for inter-species transmission: one modification of particular importance has been the development of the ability to use ACE2 as a receptor in host cells. This particular development in CoVs has been responsible for the serious outbreaks in the last two decades, and for the present COVID-19 pandemic.